Riley’s problem! How much is the right extension of Herro’s contract?

Hiro's contract renewal is also immediately on the agenda.

Recently, Heat media person Greg Sylvander talked about Herro, saying: "Mical Bridges, who has never been to the All-Star and may never be able to enter the All-Star, got 150 million in four years, so you can bet Taylor Hero that if he keeps performing efficiently for two consecutive seasons, he will definitely ask for a contract that is far higher than that."

Let's talk about Herro's situation first. In 2022, he signed a four-year, 120 million early contract renewal with the Heat. There are two years left in this contract, with salaries of 31 million and 33 million respectively.

Starting from October 2 this year, Hero is eligible to renew his contract with the Heat in advance again, with a maximum contract of 149.7 million in 3 years.

If an early renewal is not reached before October 21, Hiro is eligible to sign a four-year, 206.9 million yuan contract renewal in the summer of 2026. If he can be selected into the Best Team next season, he will be eligible to receive a five-year, 380 million yuan super maximum salary.

Hiro is a rookie in the 2019 class. Next season will be his seventh season, and he has never changed his team in his career. According to the terms of the designated veteran, as long as he is selected for the best team next season, he can indeed meet the conditions of a super top salary.

But to be honest, even if Hero enters the best lineup, it is unlikely to have 380 million yuan in five years (the Heat should not be stupid). So, what is the appropriate renewal price for Hero?

Last season, Hero played the strongest season of his career. He played in a total of 77 games for the Heat, averaging 23.9 points, 5.2 rebounds, 5.5 assists per game, shooting percentage of 47.2%/37.5%/87.8% in three events, and a real shooting percentage of 60.5%.

As a comparison, Hero in the previous season: played in 42 games, averaging 20.8 points, 5.3 rebounds and 4.5 assists per game, with a shooting percentage of 44.1%/39.6%/85.6% respectively in the three shooting percentages, and a real shooting percentage of 56.1%.

Last season, Herro scored, assists, shooting percentage, real shooting percentage, ball usage rate and other data reached career highs, and his offensive style has also changed.

First of all, it is necessary to be confirmed that Hero is really a very good three-pointer (the champion of the three-point competition last season). He has averaged 3+ three-pointers per game for three consecutive years, and his shooting percentage can be maintained at around 38%. Considering that many of his shots are three-pointers with the ball, this can be said to be very rare.

While maintaining three-pointers, Herro also added more breakthroughs. He averaged 13.9 times per game last season, while in the first two seasons, he still had 11.9 times and 10.7 times. The result of more breakthroughs is that Herro's ending at the basket has increased and his efficiency has also improved. Even the number of free throws increased from 2.6 times in the previous year to 4.2 times.

These are the results of Herro's efforts and are definitely worthy of recognition. It is also because of the improvement of the offensive end that Herro was successfully selected as the All-Star last season, which is also the first time in his career.

Progress is commendable, but objectively speaking, Herro has shortcomings, and many of them:

1. Herro is a double-athlete guard. He played point guard 38% of the time last season, but his ability to control mistakes is deviated. He averaged 5.5 assists and 2.6 turnovers per game last season. He made progress, but there is still room for improvement

2. Herro's defense is a big problem. Hearo's average of 12 shots per game last season, and his opponent's shooting rate did not drop, but increased by 3.1%. In his career, Herro has not had a season of DBPM, and last season was -0.7

3. Is Herro a player who can maintain offense in high-end games? The answer may be no. In the four games against the Cavaliers in the playoffs, Hero averaged only 17.8 points and 2.8 assists per game, with a three-point shooting percentage of 31.0%, and a real shooting percentage of 51.2%. It is definitely two different from the regular season

There are still some points to say about the playoffs.

First, Xiro not only made an offense in this round of game, but also became a big loophole. In four games, he interfered with 15.5 shots per game (he was frequently named), and his opponent's shooting rate increased by 10.1%, which was quite explosive.

The second is that Hero was ridiculed by Garland in person after G3. The latter said in the interview that the Cavaliers' tactic was to name Hero, but as a result, Hero did not respond at all in G4, and made 1 of 10 shots in the game, scoring only 4 points, 1 rebound and 1 assist.

Third, the Heat suffered a crushing defeat in this round, not only being swept, but also losing 122 points, averaging 30.5 points per game, directly setting a historical record. As the star of the game, Hero lost 30.7 points in a net loss of 100 rounds, which was shocking.

Fourth, this is not the first time that Herro has played in the playoffs worse than the regular season. In fact, except for the rookie season, Herro has not had a year of playoff performance, which is higher than the regular season. In 2023, Heat Black Eight reached the finals, and Herro only played 1 game and was reimbursed, which is somewhat embarrassing.

In summary, is Herro a core team that can build a team? I think the answer should be obvious, really not.

And from the market in recent years, defenders like Herro who have scores, no defense, and are prone to frustration in high-end games are actually getting worse and worse. I think Riley should not be unaware of this.

Pure personal opinion, 380 million yuan in five years is definitely impossible (Hiro is likely to not be able to enter the best lineup). 150 million yuan in three years is actually a bit high. The ideal situation is that the annual salary is between 40-45 million yuan. For a star who is ideally positioned as the third leader, this price is also relatively appropriate.

At this point, let's take a look at the Heat. The core lineup of next season: Herro + Powell + Adebayo + Wiggins + Weir + Davidian Mitchell + Jovic + Rozier + Highsmith.

Objectively speaking, even in the weak environment next season, it is very difficult for the Heat to break out of the Eastern Conference. With Riley's personality, he feels a little less like a Heat. Could it be that he is holding back a big wave?