The Mavericks won the No. 1 pick, with only 1.8% chance of getting it, so you re lucky

On May 13, May 13, the 2025 NBA Draft Lottery Lottery Ceremony was held in Chicago. The Dallas Mavericks won the No. 1 pick with an ultra-low probability of 1.8%, which caused a shock to the league. This is the first time the Mavericks have won the No. 1 pick in history, and it is also the team with the lowest probability that the Magic have made a comeback since 1993 (1.52% probability). After the news was announced, #Mavericks' 1.8% chance of winning the No. 1 pick# quickly became a hot search on social media around the world. Fans were hotly discussed "This luck is comparable to winning the lottery", and more doubts pointed to conspiracy theories such as "League manipulation" and "recommended Doncic".

**The mathematical miracle behind the probability game**

According to current NBA rules, 14 teams that have not entered the playoffs will be assigned to draw weights according to their regular season records, and the worse the record, the higher the probability. The Mavericks ranked ninth in the Western Conference with 41 wins and 41 losses this season, only 1 win less than the playoff threshold, and his 1.8% chance of winning ranks fourth from the bottom among the 14 teams. In comparison, the bottom Pistons (14%) and Hornets (13.4%) returned empty-handed, which further highlighted the drama of the result. ESPN data expert Kevin Pelton calculated that similar low-probability events have only happened three times in the NBA's lottery history in the past 40 years, the most recent time was when the Cavaliers (1.7%) selected Wiggins in 2014.

**The four doubts of the league's "conspiracy theory"**

Although the NBA officially emphasized that the draw process is supervised by notarization agencies, the outside world's doubts are still concentrated in four points: First, the Mavericks boss Mark Cuban is known for "dare to speak up" and was fined $2.5 million for publicly bombarding the league for referee issues. This result is regarded as "comfort"; second, the star Doncic has just signed a super maximum salary of 270 million in five years, and the league needs to equip him with stronger helpers to maintain the popularity of the championship; third, the 2025 draft is regarded as "super year", and the number one pick is popular Cooper Flagg is known as the "next Larry Bird" and has huge commercial value; fourthly, Dallas, as the fifth largest metropolitan area in the United States, has a market potential far surpassing that of small-scale markets such as Detroit and Charlotte. The famous commentator Stephen A. Smith said bluntly in the program: "When the probability is below 2%, this is beyond statistics and more like a script."

**Repeat of history? Those metaphysics with low probability of winning the lottery **

look at the history of NBA lottery, similar "miracles" are often accompanied by controversy. Before the Cavaliers (2.8%) drew Irving in 2011, Nick Gilbert, the boss's son, was called "Lucky Talisman"; after the Pelicans (6%) won Zion Williamson in 2019, then-President David Griffin immediately received a call from the league to cooperate with the publicity. What is even more intriguing is that these teams have achieved box office growth in the short term: the Cavaliers' ticket sales soared by 37% in the season, and the Pelicans' market value increased by $350 million in one year after they won Zion. Sports economist David Berry analyzed: "From the business logic, the league does have the motivation to allocate high picks to teams that can maximize commercial value, which is essentially a risk hedging. "

**The Mavericks' team building game**

For the Mavericks' management, happiness comes unexpectedly. The team originally planned to strengthen the forward line with the No. 18 pick (from the Knicks), but now they suddenly hold the No. 1 pick and face strategic adjustments. According to the Dallas Morning News, the team has urgently held a tripartite meeting. Doncic clearly supports the choice of Flag to form the "European dual core", and the coaching staff prefers to trade the No. 1 pick in exchange for immediate combat power. It is worth mentioning that if the Mavericks retain the signing, they will make history - becoming the first team to have both the MVP (Doncic) and the No. 1 pick in the season. However, salary expert Bobby Marks warned that the Mavericks' luxury tax may exceed $80 million in the 2025-26 season, and the boss Cuban needs to weigh the "short-term championship" and "long-term fiscal health".

**The undercurrents before the draft night**

As doubts fermented, the league office issued a rare statement emphasizing that "the lottery process is absolutely transparent" but failed to calm the storm. The Pistons, Wizards and other teams have jointly requested third-party audits to draw lots of videos; the bookmaker DraftKings urgently removed the "Frager Next Home" related betting; brands such as Nike and Gatorade have accelerated their contact with the Flag team. This Rashomon, which is surrounded by a 1.8% probability, exposes the eternal dilemma of the professional sports league between competitive fairness and business interests. As Sports Illustrated commented: "When miracles are too perfect, people would rather believe it is no coincidence." The storm may have just begun in the 45 days before the draft.