The Warriors advancement is in sight: Curry leads the championship gene to crush the youth storm, is the pattern of the western region changing?

On April 29, the first round of the NBA playoffs, the Warriors narrowly defeated the Rockets 109-106 at home, rewriting the series score to 3-1, just one step away from advancing.

Although Curry scored only 17 points, Butler scored 9 points in the last quarter + a key free throw to secure the victory, while Rockets star Shin Kyung scored 31+10 and could not hide the decline.

This victory not only continued the Warriors' "blood suppression" of the Rockets (19 wins and 8 losses in the playoffs in the past 10 years, eliminating opponents 4 times), but also revealed the cruel logic of the collision between old and new forces in the West: experience, depth and superstar quality are still the ultimate answer to the playoffs.

1. The Warriors' "Champion Code": Veteran's Ding Hai Ji, the system has no solution

1. Curry: The evolution from "nuclear weapons" to "tactical fulcrum"

Although Curry only contributed 15 points in this game, he has fully proved his irreplaceability in the first three games. G3 scored 36 points, 7 rebounds and 9 assists, scoring 15 points in the last quarter to reverse the game, becoming the oldest player in NBA playoff history to have a single game "30+5+5+5 three-pointer".

His off-ball run (average of 3.2 kilometers), pick-and-roll decisions (12 points in a single quarter of G3) and his ability to pass the ball after attracting double-teams (G3 activates role players such as Payton II and Hilder) directly disintegrated the Rockets' defensive system. Even though his feel declined, his presence still forced the Rockets to attack 2-3 people, creating space for teammates.

2. Butler's comeback "sentimental help". Before the Warriors crushed

G4, Butler was suspected of playing due to pelvic contusion, but eventually scored 27 points, 5 rebounds and 6 assists with injuries. Four key free throws in the last quarter ended the suspense.

His return not only filled the defensive loophole of Zhuang Meng Green's absence, but the Warriors' bench was also impressive: Payton II contributed 16 points in G3, Hilder G4 hit a key three-pointer, and the role player's stable output (19.3 points per game) compared with the Rockets' substitute 16.7 points, the gap immediately emerged.

3. Tactical Resilience: Cole completely defeated Uduka by "change"

Cole showed the on-the-spot adjustment ability of the top coach in the series:

Defensive end: G3 targeted the Rockets' three-point dependence, limiting the opponent's shooting percentage to 31.6%; G4 switched to Adams's frame protection in the final quarter, blocking Green and Butler continuously.

Offensive end: Use Kuyou to develop a "double cover tactic" to activate shooters such as Hilder; at a critical moment, Butler lets the ball hold the ball and create a foul, accurately hitting the psychological shortcomings of young Rockets players.

In contrast, Rockets coach Uduka relies too much on Jaylen Green's singles (3 three times in the last quarter of G3), and failed to solve the problems of Shin Kyung's free throw shooting percentage (only 25% in G4) and the team's three-point stability.

2. The Rockets' "Youth Sorrow": Talent is difficult to fill the gap in experience

1. Shen Jing is unable to support it, and the inside rotation collapsed

Shen Jing averaged 26 points and 9.3 rebounds per game in the series, and G4 even scored 31+10, but his free throw percentage was only 25% (7 of 28 free throws), revealing the shortcomings in psychological quality.

Landale was in a sluggish state after his comeback, Adams moved slowly, and the Rockets' inside defensive efficiency plummeted from the 6th in the regular season to the 12th in the playoffs, and was repeatedly targeted by the Warriors using pick-and-roll tactics.

2. Jaylen Green "opened high and closed low", lacking key ball ability

Green averaged 19.6 points in the first three games, but G3 only scored 9 points, G4 was invisible in the final quarter, and 6 mistakes became the turning point of the series.

Compared with Curry's "superstar moment" with 15 points in the last quarter, the Rockets lack the core of stable output under high pressure, and the team's three-point shooting percentage in the last quarter was only 14% (G4 data).

3. The three-point curse and defensive traps

Rockets ranked fourth in the league in the regular season three-point shooting percentage of 37.1%, but the playoffs plummeted to 31.6%, especially G3's second half. Through unlimited defense swaps and fast rotation, the Warriors forced the Rockets to make a large number of inefficient and strong shots, while relying on Curry's restraint to maintain their external firepower.

3. Promotion Outlook: The Warriors may repeat the "Dynasty script"

1. Historical laws and data support

The probability of a team behind 1-3 in NBA history is only 4.3%, while the Warriors' home winning rate is as high as 72% (data in the past five years).

ESPN prediction model shows that the Warriors' promotion probability has risen to 89%. The Rockets need to meet the three conditions of three-point shooting percentage 35%+, turnovers ≤12 times, and free throw shooting percentage 85%+, which is extremely difficult.

2. The pattern in the Western Region is good for the Warriors

If they advance to the second round, the Warriors' potential opponents are the Thunder or the Nuggets.

The Thunder lacks playoff experience, and the "small ball restraint chain" between the Nuggets Jokic and the Warriors has not yet been cracked; on the other hand, if the Rockets turn around by chance, they will face the Clippers/Mavericks' forward group, and the prospects are even more dangerous.

3. Injury hazards and physical fitness allocation

The Warriors' core lineup is older (Curry 37 years old and Butler 36 years old), but Kerr effectively avoids risks through rotation control (Curry G4 only plays for 31 minutes) and system reduction of burden. In contrast, the mentality of the Rockets young players is on the verge of collapse. Shin Kyung and Adams are fighting with injuries, and their physical reserves are worrying.

Conclusion: The metaphor of the era of the old and new kings

The Warriors used a typical "champion-style victory" to prove that the playoffs are not only a competition of talent, but also a strangle battle between experience, details and psychology. Although the Rockets' youth storm is anticipated, the price of growth is destined to be cruel. For the Warriors, a 3-1 lead is just the beginning, and their goal is obviously to recast the glory of the dynasty; and if the Rockets want to truly "cross the Warriors mountain", they may still have to wait for Curry to grow old, or their own core to complete the "key ball evolution".