Team strength list: Thunder tops the list, Nuggets ranks second

The last time an NBA team successfully defended its title was seven years ago, tying the second-longest title drought in NBA history.

The Oklahoma City Thunder are an excellent candidate to end this record. Last season, they set the fourth-highest net rating in league history, retained all rotation players, and the core lineup is composed of a group of young players who are on the rise. In the NBA's annual general manager survey, the Thunder became the favorite team to win the championship in the 2025-26 season with 80% of the votes. This vote rate ranked fifth in history in the 24 years since the survey was launched.

Of course, the Boston Celtics at this time last year were equally unstoppable - they also retained a complete lineup and were considered the favorite to defend the title with 83% of their general manager votes. However, the Celtics ultimately failed to defend their title, becoming the sixth consecutive defending champion that failed to advance to the conference finals the following year.

Although the Thunder seem to have the strength to defend the title, if you place a bet on the proposition "Thunder vs. other teams in the league," most people will still choose the latter. However, as the new season begins, the defending champion still holds the top spot on the strength list.

1. Oklahoma City Thunder

Last week's ranking: 1

Preseason record: 4 wins and 2 losses

The Thunder basically retained the original team, and all the top 11 players in last season's playoff playing time remained on the team. They are young and experienced, with excellent depth in the lineup, and they are the strongest contenders to end the seven-year streak without a team defending the championship.

Preseason observation: The team has not had much update on the injury of Jaylen Williams, who underwent right wrist surgery after the Finals and missed the entire preseason. During Williams' absence, Alex Caruso started all three preseason games (he only started 3 times in 77 regular season + playoff games last season). Chet Holmgren only played in the final preseason game, when he formed a starting five with Hatten.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander showed an extremely efficient performance in 57 minutes of playing time, shooting 83% from the field (including 9 of 11 outside the paint area), and his data reached 32.1 points and 10.1 assists per 36 minutes. In the past two regular seasons, he only had 6.7 assists per 36 minutes.

Focus to observe in the first week: Holmgren’s offensive development. The Thunder were invincible on the defensive end last season, but there is still room for improvement on the offensive end. Perhaps giving Holmgren (who played in just 32 games last season) more tactical freedom - especially while Williams is out - could create another starting point for the team's offense.

After the championship flag-raising ceremony, the defending champion will face the Rockets led by Kevin Durant at home. Although the Thunder won three of five meetings last season, the Rockets took more shots in all four games and maintained a significant rebounding advantage.

2. Denver Nuggets

Last week's ranking: 2

Preseason record: 3 wins and 2 losses

The Thunder do have an advantage in the depth of the rotation with picks 2-10. But the Nuggets have Nikola Jokic — an unsolvable problem for any team in the world. The rest of the Denver Nuggets rotation appears to be stronger now than it has been the past two years.

Preseason observation: Jokic only attempted 2 long-range three-pointers in 29 shots, and actually made 22 of 27 shots (81%) within the three-point line. In the 68 minutes he played with at least three of the other four starters, the Nuggets scored 136 points per 100 possessions. But the bench time is still a hidden danger - in the 83 minutes of Jonas Valanciunas' preseason game, the Nuggets lost a net loss of 19 points (only 99.4 points per 100 possessions).

We may see the Nuggets increase their use of zone defense in the new season. According to Second Spectrum data tracking, they averaged 9.3 possessions of zone defense in three preseason games in NBA arenas (the most of any team in the preseason), including some possessions in which Jokic and Valanciunas were on the court at the same time.

The focus of observation in the first week: the bench lineup. This will be an ongoing concern unless teams find a solution. Although Valanciunas can imitate Jokic's style of play better than other centers, he had 8 assists and 13 turnovers (including a large number of offensive fouls) in the preseason. The problem isn't just him—Bruce Brown and Tim Hardaway Jr. clearly need to improve their sights after shooting a combined 17-of-53 in five preseason games.

The Nuggets will become the latest team to debut in the 2025-26 season. They will not challenge the Golden State Warriors away from home until this Friday. In April this year, their nine-game winning streak against the Warriors was just ended.

3. Cleveland Cavaliers

Last week's ranking: 3

Preseason record: 1 win and 3 losses

The Cleveland Cavaliers are facing tremendous pressure. This team, which has the league's most expensive lineup, won first place in the Eastern Conference with the league's best offensive efficiency last season, but its performance in the 2025 playoffs fell short of expectations. If they fail to reach the finals in the new season, the core lineup of this team may fall apart.

Preseason observation: Due to the absence of Darius Garland and Max Strus, the Cavaliers are likely to start the new season with Sam Merrill and DeAndre Hunter as the starters. Garland's absence will also create more opportunities for Evan Mobley to organize the offense. He has more assists per 36 minutes in the preseason (5.1) than Donovan Mitchell (4.5). Lonzo Ball averaged 10.1 assists per 36 minutes in 46 preseason minutes and may also be an option to partner with Mitchell in the backcourt (more suitable for the closing stages rather than starting).

Hunt averaged 32.7 points per 36 minutes in the preseason, and he is expected to remain in the starting lineup even after Struss returns.. After joining at the trade deadline last season, he had almost no chance to play with the Cavaliers' core players - he only played 45 minutes with Garland, Mitchell, Mobley and Jarrett Allen in the regular season and playoffs.

The focus of observation in the first week: defense switching strategy. In the series where the Cavaliers lost to the Pacers in the Eastern Conference semifinals, they repeatedly found themselves in trouble after switching defenses on the pick-and-roll - sometimes Jarrett Allen struggled to defend on the outside, and sometimes opponents took advantage of mismatches in the paint. If switching defenses continue to be used against the Knicks in the opening game of the new season, Mitchell Robinson (who only played against the Cavaliers once last season) may completely crush the Cavaliers' backcourt and wings with his rebounding advantage.

The Cavaliers will face Eastern Conference teams in the first 13 games of the new season (and 19 of the first 22 games), with the highlight being the away game in New York. They have won three consecutive games at Madison Square Garden (both by six points), with Garland as the leading scorer in both games (34 and 26 points respectively).

4. New York Knicks

Last week's ranking: 5

Preseason record: 4 wins and 1 loss

The Knicks achieved their best record in the past 25 years last season, but the team under new coach Mike Brown has high aspirations and hopes to reach the finals through tactical innovation.

Preseason observation: If you expect Brown to improve the game rhythm or increase transfer assists after coaching, the preseason data may be disappointing - the Knicks ranked 29th in the league in rhythm value, 22nd in transition offense share, and 25th in assist rate. But according to Second Spectrum tracking data, they lead the league in handoffs per 100 possessions (they ranked 14th last season). 39% of Jaylen Brunson's goals in sports games come from assists (9 of 23 shots). If this is maintained until the regular season, it will be his highest assist rate since joining the Knicks.

Although only the two core players Brunson and Mikal Bridges were healthy and played in the final game of the preseason, all injuries were minor injuries. Mitchell Robinson started alongside Karl-Anthony Towns in all three games, and the team allowed just 71 points per 100 possessions (35 points in 49 defensive possessions) in the 24 minutes they played together.

Focus to observe in the first week: attack timing. If the Knicks can speed up the offensive pace, the game will be much easier. Starting the offense earlier will help get better shooting opportunities, and the team needs to reduce the number of forced shots within 6 seconds of the attack time (22% last season, rising to 27% in the playoffs).

The Knicks were 13 games behind the Eastern Conference's top-ranked Cavaliers last season. They lost all four games in the series against the Cavaliers, losing as much as 123.5 points per 100 possessions. To dominate the East, they must overcome the Cavaliers mountain - the two sides will compete in New York this Thursday.

5. Minnesota Timberwolves

Last week’s ranking: 6

Preseason record: 1 win and 4 losses

The Timberwolves have entered the Western Conference finals for two consecutive years, and their core players have just turned 24 years old. But hitting higher goals may be the biggest challenge, especially when facing powerful opponents such as the Oklahoma City Thunder and Denver Nuggets.

Preseason observation: Anthony Edwards' three-point shot ratio soared from 34.1% in the 2023-24 season to 50.3% last season, but this data dropped back to 37.3% in the preseason (19 three-pointers in 51 attempts). Overall, the Timberwolves' three-point shot rate dropped the second highest in the league from last season. Only Brandon Ingram took more mid-range shots than Edwards in the preseason, and the latter made only 5 of 15 shots in the area between the paint and the three-point line.

The Timberwolves need Robert Dillingham or Terrance Shannon Jr. to provide firepower on the bench, but their performance during the playing time is poor: in the preseason game against NBA opponents, the team lost 46 points in 116 minutes played by Dillingham, and the team lost 16 points in 88 minutes played by Shannon.

Focus to observe in the first week: performance at critical moments. Although the Timberwolves had the second-best point differential in the Western Conference last season, they only ranked sixth. The root cause is that they only achieved 20 wins and 26 losses in games that were within five points in the last five minutes. Their defensive efficiency at critical moments ranked 24th in the league for two consecutive years. If you want to be among the top four in the Western Conference, you must improve your performance in decisive moments.

The Timberwolves suffered back-to-back losses in Portland last November, scoring only 102 points per 100 possessions in the two games. They will visit the Moda Center again in the new season opener on Thursday.

6-10: Clippers, Rockets, Warriors, Magic, Lakers

11-15: Pistons, Hawks, Mavericks, Bucks, Spurs

16-20: Grizzlies, Walkers Trail Blazers, 76ers, Celtics, Raptors

21-25: Heat, Trail Blazers, Bulls, Pelicans, Suns

26-30: Kings, Hornets, Wizards, Nets, Jazz