The top scorer has been determined, the pattern has not been determined: 2025 NBA draft in-depth forecast and historical inspiration

"A 1.8% chance of winning the No. 1 pick? The Dallas Mavericks used the fourth-lowest probability 'miracle' in history to rewritten the logic of reconstruction for ten years!" - When Cuban overlapped with the memories of Ewing's 1985 at the draw site, the script of the 2025 draft had already locked in Cooper Flag in advance. This article analyzes the chain reaction triggered by this "Frag Cup" from three dimensions: historical laws, team strategy, and rookie potential.

🎯1. The anchor of the No. 1 pick: Flag and the Mavericks' "selected combination"

The unshakable No. 1 pick belongs

Although Flag's physical test dynamic data (vertical jump 35.5 inches) is far inferior to James (114 cm/about 45 inches), his offense and defense versatility (Duke averaged 19.2 points, 7.5 rebounds, 4.2 assists, 1.4 breaks, 1.4 caps + 38.5% three-pointers) and modern forward scarce attributes (2.06 meters height + five-position ability to switch defense) make the Mavericks ignore the "explosive questioning". Team legend Olajuwon even said bluntly: "His basketball IQ is like a young version of Pippen!" The Mavericks' "win in the present" paradox

Flag will join the "old No. 1 pick matrix" composed of Irving (33 years old), Thunder Eyebrow (32 years old), and Klay Thompson (35 years old), with his paper combat power directly aimed at the championship. But the hidden dangers are sharp: risk of injury wave: Irving ACL recovery period until March next year, the attendance rate of Davis in the past five seasons is only 68%; the time window is misaligned: Flag needs 2-3 years to grow, while the top three of the Big Three is only 1-2 seasons left; fans complained bitterly: "This lineup is like using antique vases to build blocks - gorgeous but it breaks when touched."

📊2. Lotto zone game: From "striking battle" to "intercepting art"

ranking

teams predicted candidates

Key logic

No.

Spurs

Dylan Harper (point guard)

Reinforcement Rear engine, Wenban Yama needs a pick-and-roll partner; Harper averages 18.1 points and 5.8 assists per game, template Brunson

Tanhua

76ers

Ece Bailey (forward guard)

Embid lacks a forward helper, Bailey is 2.06 meters tall + 44% three-pointer into a perfect 3D puzzle

4th

Hornets

VJ Edgecom (point guard)

Lamero Ball need to score without the ball, Edgecom Baylor averages 21 points + 40% three-pointer

5th

Jazz

Yang Hansen (center)

Ange's adventure! Joint trial training ability conquers scouts (BPM number 4.04 first international rookie), Makanen's perfect substitute

The biggest variable:

Nets (8th pick) may trade upward to grab Yang Hansen, whose "Chinese market effect + support talent" meets the needs of reconstruction;

Trail Blazers (11th pick) aims at Michigan center Danny Wolf, 7-foot height + 33.6% three-pointers can relieve Klingen's pressure.

⚡️ III. Repeated history? The Mavericks' "full-level trap" and the way to break the deadlock

The successful case of the "rookie is competing for the championship": In 1982, the Lakers used the No. 1 pick to choose James Worthy, and won the championship in the season (partnered by Jabbar + Magic); failure warning: In 2004, the Pistons chose Milicic (second-highest), because Larry Brown refused to use a new player to become the "most second-highest".

Mavericks' life-and-death choice

General Manager Nick Harrison faces a dilemma:

Path A: Trading Goverd + the first round pick in 2029, changing to young point guards (such as Trail Blazers Simmons) to relieve Irving's pressure;

Path B: Selling the Thomas Browser's salary avoidance bomb in 2027 (maximum salary risk at the age of 36) and completely rebuild around Flag + Leifley. Popovich once warned: "Forcibly stitching the 'now and the future', the ending is often a loss-win situation!"

🔮4. Three suspenses on the draft night: money, tears and counterattack

Flag's commercial nuclear explosion

New Balance has issued an eight-year endorsement contract for it, and if it is worth doubled in New York/Los Angeles, the premium of Dallas fans' loyalty is immeasurable.

"McConnell script" for the undraft

This year's guards are not in depth, and "Defensive Mad Dogs" may emerge in the second round: Purdue University Brad Smith: 1.93 meters of wingspan 2.11 meters, NCAA steal king (2.9 times), template Caruso; French point guard Nolan Traore: Average of 16 points and 7 assists in the G League, but the age of 19 is intimidating the conservative team.

"Avengers" Thunder's dark line operation

Holding up to 4 first-round picks (including the top 6 protections of 76ers), or packing a deal with Antetokounmpo and partnering with Alexander to copy the 2012 Harden transaction.

💎Conclusion: The draft is not the end, but the starting point of reconstructing the league's power

When Flag put on the Mavericks' jersey, he swept the social media, he not only carries the redemption of Dallas, but also the triple metaphor of the small-scale market counterattack, veteran dusk, and international trends. Just as Jordan's 1984 draft changed the process of NBA globalization, the 2025 draft may rewrite history in two ways: Flag's "quick champion" or Yang Hansen's "Oriental Support Revolution".

The Countdown to the Draft Conference 13 days - on June 26, Barclays Center, we witness not only the moment when the name is pronounced, but also the fork in the road of an era