Champions League Preview: Benfica VS Karabakh, the collision between the Portuguese Super League and the Azerbaijan dark horse

The Champions League group stage is in full swing, and Portuguese Super League giant Benfica will sit in the Stadium of Light to face Karabakh, the Azerbaijani League powerhouse. This game is not only a match between different league styles, but also a prospect for qualifying in the group. Benfica is determined to score three points at home to consolidate the qualifying advantage; Karabach is eager to score points in an upset and retain hope for advancing to the knockout stage. Both teams need to work hard to deal with their respective difficulties.

Benfica has shown strong dominance in the Portuguese Super League this season. Currently, he leads the standings with 7 wins, 1 draw, 0 losses and 22 points, leading the second place by 4 points, and his offensive firepower is terrifying (3.1 goals per game). The team relies on a 4-3-3 offensive system, with winger Di Maria averaging 2.5 successful breakthroughs per game (3rd in the Portuguese Super League), forward Joao Neves has scored 8 goals this season (Portuguese Super League + Champions League), and midfielder Enzo Fernandez averaging 2.2 key passes per game to attack.

However, the team has the hidden dangers of "inattention in defensiveness" and "increasing mistakes under high pressure": although they have won all the last 3 games, they have conceded 1.3 goals per game. When the Portuguese Super League narrowly defeated Braga 3-2 at home in the last round, the defense line made many low-level mistakes; when facing the opponent's high-intensity pressing, the midfield pass error rate rose to 15%, and the first UEFA Champions League defeated Salzburg Red Bull 1-0, and the game's pass success rate was only 83% (a new season low). To control the situation at home, Benfica needs to let central defender Antonio Silva strengthen his defensive command (average 4.1 clearances per game) to reduce low-level mistakes; at the same time, Enzo Fernandez reduces long pass attempts, cooperate with wingers for short passes, use Di Maria's personal ability to break the deadlock and avoid falling into a midfield strangle with his opponent.

Karabakh, as a representative of the Azerbaijan League this season, returned to the Champions League main match after many years and has high morale. Currently, he ranks first in the domestic league with 5 wins, 2 draws and 0 losses and 17 points. He tied Copenhagen 1-1 away in the first game of the Champions League group stage, showing tenacity and resilience.

The team mainly plays a 5-4-1 defensive counterattack tactic. Midfielder Richard averaged 2.1 steals per game (first in the team), and central defender Aliyev averaged 4.5 clearances per game, effectively limiting opponents' offense, but there are problems of "shortness of away offense" and "declining physical fitness in the late stage": he averaged 0.7 goals in the last three Champions League away games, and the shooting rate was only 27% (4th from the bottom of the Champions League). Forward Mohamed Zad scored 5 goals this season and only 1 away goal was recorded; the conceding of goals after 70 minutes was as high as 70%. Facing Copenhagen in the last round, it was precisely because of the decline in physical fitness that caused the defense to loosen and concede the ball.

Challenge Benfica in this game. Karabach needs to let midfielder Jocannovic focus on Enzo Fernandez and cut off his passing route; at the same time, let winger Mamadu Kamala reduce individual breakthroughs, cooperate with Mohamed Zad to "fast counterattack" (2.6 counterattacks per game, 4th in the Champions League group), use set pieces (Aliyev's success rate of top-scoring 70%) to find opportunities to score, allocate physical fitness reasonably, and ensure the intensity of the whole game's defensiveness.

It is worth noting that the two teams have no direct confrontation record in history, but Benfica has 4 wins and 1 draw in the last 5 Champions League home games, and the atmosphere of the Guangming Stadium is warm and can improve the team's offensive efficiency by 15%; Karabach has faced Portuguese Super League teams in his last 3 away games in the Champions League, and his adaptability to high-intensity offense remains to be tested. In addition, Benfica's lineup is thicker and can perform multiple rotations to maintain physical fitness. Karabach's main lineup is highly dependent and has limited room for tactical adjustment.

Combining the strength, tactical style and home and away factors of the two teams, Benfica's home advantage and offensive firepower are obviously superior. Although there are flaws in defense, it can be compensated by offensive suppression; although Karabach's defensive counterattack is threatening, it is difficult to break Benfica's defense line. It is expected that Benfica will rely on midfield control and forward performance to completely block the opponent and get three points, occupying the initiative in qualifying in the group; if Karabach can improve the counterattack efficiency, there may be a 1-1 draw, but under the overall strength gap, it is extremely difficult to win the away game.