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Looking for a gun in Milan, who will the flowers fall?

Football

As we all know, since Giroud left Milan, Milan's forward line has been missing a stable and efficient scorer. The combination of Morata + Abraham in the first half of the season, and the combination of Simenez + Abraham in the second half of the season, were not satisfactory. After Allegri took office, Milan launched a intensive gun search operation, targeting Vlahovic of Juventus, Borofas of Leverkusen, and Ramos of Benfica. Below is a comprehensive assessment from four dimensions: tactical adaptability, age potential, financial cost and Milan's current needs to see who is most suitable for Milan today?

1. Tactical adaptability: Vlahovic and Milan system are highly consistent with

Allegri's tactical core is "defense-based, control-turned-to-wing, and end of the penalty area". The requirements for the forward can be summarized into three points: positional fulcrum capability (connecting midfield and wing), penalty area dominance (end of high conversion rate), and basic defensive contribution (high-level pressing and return-to-defense awareness).

- Vlahovic's accurate match:

As one of the top traditional centers in Serie A, his aerial advantage (3.2 successful top scorers per game, 3rd in Serie A center) can directly connect with the cross resources of Milan's wing core Leo (2.1 crosses per game), solving the stubborn problem of Milan's positional battle this season's "blooming on the wing but no fulcrum in the middle" (Milan averages only 0.3 headers per game, 12th in Serie A). Its penalty area ending efficiency (0.58 goals per game in Serie A in the past three seasons, with a conversion rate of 18%) is something Milan urgently needed - the current Milan striker's average shooting conversion rate is only 11%, ranking fourth from the bottom among the top 16 teams in the Champions League.

More importantly, Vlahovic has adapted to Allegri's "defensive discipline" in recent years: he averaged 1.1 steals + 0.8 interceptions per game at Juventus. Although it is not top-notch, it is enough to meet Milan's basic requirements for "forwards to participate in the first-level pressing", which is more in line with system compatibility than Bonifas, which relies entirely on counterattacks.

-Bonifas' adaptation limitations:

The core value of this Leverkusen striker is in counterattack speed (34.1km/h top speed) and deep interlude (average to create excellent opportunities 1.1 times per game), which matches Milan's rhythm from defense to offense, but has limited role in positional battles - he averages only 1.2 times per game, and only 38% of the penalty area touches (Vlahovic 62%). Serie A mainly focuses on intensive defense (1.2 more defensive players in the penalty area than in the Bundesliga), Bonifas's "counterattack dependence" may be amplified, making it difficult to undertake more than 30% of Milan's positional offensive tasks.

- Ramos' adaptation weakness:

Benfica's forward's back-to-body connection ability (2.3 successful back-to-body passes per game) and small-range sense of smell (65% of close shots) are worthy of recognition, but his tactical coverage is too narrow - the average activity hot zone is concentrated in the arc top area of the penalty area, lacking the awareness of wing support or retreating to the midfield, and conflicts with the "forward position rotation" required by Allegri (such as Giroud frequently retreats to the front midfield position).

2. Age and potential: All three are in line with the youth strategy, Vlahovic is the best in combat power

Milan's current reconstruction core is "taking young players as the skeleton, taking into account combat power". The age of the three (23-26 years old) is in a golden period of career growth, which is far superior to veterans such as Son Heung-min.

- Vlahovic (26 years old): At the "peak starting point", his technical style has been established but there is still room for improvement (such as shooting accuracy outside the penalty area), which can immediately fill the gap in Milan's forward line, while ensuring stability in the next 3-5 years.

- Bonifas (24 years old): The upper limit of potential is higher, but if you join, you need to adapt to the rhythm of Serie A (the Bundesliga offense and defense conversion speed is 12% faster than Serie A), it may take half a season to run-in, that is, the combat power is slightly inferior.

- Ramos (23 years old): The most potential but the technology still needs to be polished (such as the ball-out choice after protecting the ball with your back), which is more suitable as the "core of the future" training, and it is difficult to bear the main task in the short term.

3. Financial cost: Vlahovic is cost-effective, and Ramos has the most cost advantage

Milan's budget for the 2025 summer window is about 100 million euros, and it is necessary to prioritize the balance of "that is, combat power and investment":

- Vlahovic: Juventus asked for it about 60 million euros (the contract expires in 2026), and its annual salary after tax is about 5 million euros (lower than Leo's 7 million, which does not destroy the salary structure). Considering his Serie A proven performance (52 goals in 89 games in Serie A in the past three seasons), the "that is, the premium of combat power" is reasonable.

-Bonifas: Leverkusen's valuation is 50 million euros (the contract expires in 2028), but Bundesliga players have a "adaptation tax" when they switch to Serie A (such as the efficiency of former Leverkusen striker Hick's first season declined by 30%), and the actual cost-effectiveness is lower than expected.

- Ramos: Benfica's asking price is about 35 million euros (the contract expires in 2027), the salary demand is 3 million euros, the lowest cost but it needs to bear the "potential realization risk" (the intensity of the confrontation between Portugal Super League and Serie A is significantly different).

4. Lineup complementarity: Vlahovic fills Milan's core shortcomings

Milan's existing front line has two major pain points: low efficiency in the penalty area (38% average shot-pointing rate in Serie A, 10th in the league) and weak air confrontation (42% average top-point success rate, 14th in the league).

- Vlahovic's dominance in the penalty area (62% of the touch ball is in the penalty area, Serie A center second) can directly increase the shooting rate; his air advantage can form a linkage with Leo and Chukueze's crosses, enriching offensive methods.

-Bonifas's speed can strengthen counterattacks, but cannot solve the stalemate of position and must be matched with a Vlahovic-type center to the best (similar to the combination of Leverkusen and Shik).

- Ramos's small-scale sense of smell is suitable for chaos, but it lacks the ability to change the rhythm of the game and is difficult to become the core of tactics..

Conclusion: Vlahovic is the optimal solution. Bonifas can be used as an alternative

Vlahovic's positional fulcrum ability and penalty area ending efficiency are perfectly consistent with Allegri's tactical needs. His age and salary are in line with the logic of Milan's reconstruction. It is the "core of combat power" that can immediately improve the team's competitiveness. Bonifas can be used as a "special supplement for counterattack", but it needs to be used with the center. It is difficult to solve the fundamental problem by introducing it separately. Ramos is more suitable as a long-term investment and cannot meet Milan's goals of winning the Serie A championship and advancing to the Champions League in the short term. Therefore, Vlahovic is the best choice for Milan among the three.

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